Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
