Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
